Stocks audited on June 30th, 2022
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET
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1 – STOCKS AUDITED ON JUNE 30TH, 2022:
A survey carried out through an independent audit with each of CitrusBR members and also consolidated by an external audit found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice converted into frozen concentrated orange juice equivalent to 66 ° Brix (FCOJ Equivalent at 66 ° Brix), held by its associates, on June 30th, 2022 were 143,104 tons, a decrease of 54.8% in comparison to the 316,929 tons on 30th June 2021.
2 – INDUSTRIAL YIELD ON FRUIT FOR THE 2022/23 SEASON:
The compilation also carried out individually and confidentially by an independent audit among CitrusBR members pointed out that the average industrial yield on fruit for the 2022/23 season is estimated at 269.3 boxes for the production of one ton of FCOJ equivalent to 66° Brix.
3 – ORANGE PROCESSING AND JUICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR THE 2022/23 SEASON:
Considering a crop estimated by Fundecitrus at 316,950,000 boxes of 40.8 kg and consumption in the Brazilian domestic fresh fruit market of around 40,000,000 boxes, it is possible to estimate the processing of oranges for orange juice production at around 276,950,000 boxes for CitrusBR’s members and non-members. With the above figures, it is possible to estimate the total orange juice production in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro at approximately 1,028,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66° Brix.
4 – ESTIMATED ORANGE JUICE STOCKS FOR JUNE 3Oth 2023:
With carry-over stocks of 143,104 tons and an expected production of 1,028,000 tons the total juice availability will be approximately 1,171,170 tons. In line with the average of exports in recent years disclosed by Secex Brasil, demand is estimated at least 1,030,000 tons.
Also, considering a possible increase in shipments to the United States, given the decline in the crop and inventories in Florida, CitrusBR estimates that ending stocks on June 30th, 2023, should remain relatively stable, around 140,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent.
On February 2023, we will further update our stocks projections for June 30th, 2023, based on the developments of the current crop.
São Paulo, August 29th, 2022
Ibiapaba Netto
Executive-Director
Final data about 2021/2022 season
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET
São Paulo, June 10th: Consolidation carried out individually and confidentially of data provided by companies associated with CitrusBR showed that:
1 – TOTAL ORANGE PRODUCTION IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO AND TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO AND TOTAL ORANGE PROCESSING ON THE 2021/2022 SEASON:
The data collection showed that the total orange processing in the Citrus Belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro on the 2021/22 season is estimated at 224,422,184 boxes of 40.8 kilos. From this volume, 206,298,851 boxes correspond to CitrusBR members and 18,123,333 boxes to non-members.
2 – INDUSTRIAL YIELD ON FRUIT AND BRIX FOR THE 2021/2022 SEASON:
The final industrial yield on fruit of CitrusBR members is estimated at 272.3 boxes of 40.8 kilos to produce one ton of FCOJ Equivalent 66 Brix (FCOJ Equivalent). For non-members, an industrial yield on fruit of 282.5 orange boxes of 40.8 kilos is estimated to produce one ton of FCOJ equivalent.
Therefore, for the 2021/22 season, we can estimate an average industrial yield on fruit of 273.1 boxes of 40.8 kilos to produce one ton of FCOJ equivalent. The same compilation showed an average of 11.70 Brix for the 2021/22 season, data used for NFC exports.
The graph below shows the average industrial yield on fruit data of CitrusBR members and non-members.
3 – TOTAL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO AND TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO ON THE 2021/2022 SEASON:
Considering the data above, we estimate that the total production of orange juice in the 2021/2022 season was 821.6 thousand tons of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent. From this total volume, 757.5 thousand tons were produced by CitrusBR members and 64.1 thousand tons by non-members. Hence, for the 2021/2022 season, we estimate a reduction in the total orange juice production of around 1.89% or 15.8 thousand tons, a decrease from the total volume of 837.4 thousand tons produced in the 2020/2021 season.
São Paulo, June 10th, 2022.
Ibiapaba Netto
Executive-Director
Audited inventories as at December 31st, 2021
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET
- TOTAL ORANGE PRODUCTION IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO & TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO IN THE 2021/2022 SEASON:
According to Fundecitrus latest February 10th 2022 crop announcement up-date, the São Paulo and Minas Gerais Triangle production in the 2021/22 season is estimated at 264,140,000 boxes of oranges 40.8 Kg.
- ORANGE PROCESSING IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO & TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO IN THE 2021/2022 SEASON:
A survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of our members, and later confidentially consolidated by an external independent auditing firm hired by CitrusBR aggregated the following data below:
The estimated orange processing for the 2021/22 season will total about 224,000,000 boxes, of which 206,500,000 boxes are processed by CitrusBR members and 17,500,000 boxes by non-members. It represents an increase of 0.66% from the 222,528,950 processed in the 2020/21 season.
Based on the data mentioned above, we estimate that the total consumption of oranges in the domestic and export fresh markets is about 40,000,000 boxes.
- JUICE YIELD ON FRUIT FOR THE 2021/22 SEASON:
The survey also estimated that the average juice yield on fruit for the entire São Paulo Industry in the 2021/22 season will be about 273 boxes of 40.8 kg per metric ton of FCOJ Equivalent produced, of which 272.27 boxes per ton for CitrusBR members and 281.47 boxes per ton for non-members.
The graph below contains total industry historical juice yield of fruit of CitrusBR´s members and non-members:
- TOTAL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION IN THE 2021/22 SEASON:
Considering the above data, we estimate that the total industry orange juice production in the 2021/22 season will be about 820,567 tons of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent of which 758,438 tons were produced by CitrusBR members and 62,129 by non-members. The 2021/22 total industry orange juice production will be 2% lower than the 837,465.7 tons produced in the previous 2020/21 season.
- AUDITED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS ON DECEMBER 31ST, 2021:
A survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of CitrusBR members and consolidated by external independent auditing firm also found that global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into FCOJ Equivalent 66° Brix on hands of CitrusBR´s members on December 31st 2021 amounted to 509,010 tons which represents a 25% decrease from the 678,967 tons found on December 31st 2020.
- PROJECTED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS FOR JUNE 30TH, 2022:
The compilation also found that on June 30th, 2022, inventories are estimated to be at around 126,574 FCOJ Equivalent to 66 Brix, and it could vary between 115.000 tons to 135.000 tons. CitrusBR recalls that the climatic effects widely publicized throughout the 2021/22 crop, such as prolonged drought and frost, affected the development and maturation process of the fruits, impacting the acidity levels of the juice produced. Due to the estimated amounts of stocks and the consequences of climatic events, CitrusBR informs that the volume of juice will not be sufficient to guarantee supply to the global market until 2022/23 harvest becomes available
São Paulo, February 18th, 2022.
Ibiapaba Netto
Executive-Director