Projected Global orange juice stocks for June 30TH, 2022
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET:
1 – STOCKS AUDITED ON JUNE 30TH, 2021:
As published on August 18th, 2021, a survey carried out through an independent audit with each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and also consolidated by an external audit, found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into Concentrated and Frozen Orange Juice equivalent to 66 ° Brix (FCOJ Equivalent at 66 ° Brix), held by its associates, on June 30th, 2021, were 316,929 tons.
At that time, it was not possible to estimate the processing of fruit and production of juice until the Citrus Defense Fund (Fundecitrus) re-estimated the harvest and quantified the effects of the drought and frosts that hit the citrus belt of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. With the results published by Fundecitrus last September 10th, 2021, CitrusBR can proceed with its market information program.
2 – JUICE YIELD ON FRUIT ESTIMATED FOR THE 2021/22 SEASON:
In a compilation carried out individually and confidentially by independent audit among the companies associated with CitrusBR, it was found that the average industrial yield on fruit for the 2021/22 harvest is estimated at 263.2 boxes to produce one ton of FCOJ equivalent at 66º Brix.
3 – ORANGE PROCESSING AND JUICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR THE SEASON 2021/22:
Considering a crop estimated by Fundecitrus on September 10th at 267,870,000 boxes of 40.8 kg and consumption in the Brazilian domestic market of fresh fruit of around 40,000,000 boxes, it is possible to estimate processing at around 227,870,000 boxes for CitrusBR’ members and non-members.
Thus, applying the estimated average yield on fruit of 263.2 boxes per ton to the 227,870,000 boxes of oranges to be processed in the 2021/22 harvest, the total estimated production of orange juice in the citrus belt of Sao Paulo and Triangulo Mineiro is around 865,767 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66º Brix.
4 – ESTIMATED DEMAND IN THE 2021/22 HARVEST:
Considering the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) data as a reference, for calculation purposes, it is possible to estimate that the international demand for orange juice shall remain stable, at around 1,000,000 tons.
5 – PROJECTED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS FOR JUNE 30TH, 2022:
Considering all the data exposed, it is reasonable to estimate that the final orange juice stocks on the date of passage on June 30th, 2022, are comprised in a range between 170,000 and 190,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent depending on the development of the orange crop. This estimative is also still subject to the effects of the water crisis that continues in the citrus belt of the State of São Paulo and Minas Gerais and to changes in the demand for orange juice.
São Paulo, September 16th, 2021
Ibiapaba Netto
Executive Director
Audited inventories as at June 30th, 2021
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET
STOCKS AUDITED ON JUNE 30TH, 2021:
A survey carried out through an independent audit with each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and also consolidated by an external audit, found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into Concentrated and Frozen Orange Juice equivalent to 66 ° Brix (FCOJ Equivalent at 66 ° Brix), held by its associates, on June 30th, 2021, were 316,929.70 tons. It represents a 33% reduction from the 471,138 tons consolidated in the same period last year.
ORANGE PROCESSING AND JUICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR THE SEASON 2021/22:
Due to the prolonged drought that affects the citrus belt of the State of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, associated with the frosts that occurred during July 2021, it is not possible, at this moment, to estimate the orange processing for the 2021/22 harvest. The conjunction of these two phenomena in the same harvest is unprecedented in the sector’s recent history, which raises additional caution in the projection of data given a possible crop failure. The Citriculture Defense Fund (Fundecitrus), a research institution with 44 years of existence and which has been working on crop estimates and re-estimates since 2015, will make a new announcement on September 10th, according to its annual release calendar. As soon as CitrusBR is aware of the effects of these climatic events on the supply of fruit, it will be possible to bring new information and projections to the market.
São Paulo, August 19th, 2021
Ibiapaba Netto
Executive-Director
Projected global orange juice stocks for June 30th, 2021
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET
São Paulo, June 9th: A survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of our members, and later confidentially consolidated by external independent auditing firm hired by CitrusBR aggregated the following data below:
1. TOTAL ORANGE PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO & TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO IN THE 2020/21 SEASON:
According to Fundecitrus crop announcement up-date of April 12th, the production of São Paulo & Triângulo Mineiro Citrus Belt in the 2020/21 season was estimated at 268.63 million boxes of oranges of 40.8 Kg.
The estimated total orange processing for the 2020/21 season was 222,528,950 boxes of which 204,395,616 were processed by CitrusBR members and 18,133,333 by non-members. In comparison to the previous estimative of February 2021 there is an increment of approximately 6,887,626 boxes in the total orange processing.
Based on the above-mentioned data we estimate that total consumption of oranges in the domestic and export fresh markets was of 46 million boxes of 40.8 kgs.
2. JUICE YIELD ON FRUIT FOR THE 2020/21 SEASON:
The survey also estimated that the average juice yield on fruit for the entire São Paulo industry in the 2020/21 season was 265.7 boxes of 40.8 kg per metric ton of FCOJ Equivalent produced, whereas 265 boxes per ton for CitrusBR members and 273.8 boxes per ton for non-members.
The graph below contains total industry historical juice yield on fruit.
3. TOTAL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION IN THE 2020/21 SEASON:
Considering the above data, we estimate that the total orange juice production in the 2020/21 season was of 837,465.7 tons of FCOJ 66 Brix. This represents an increment of about 19,721.7 tons in comparison to the previous estimative in last February.
The total 2020/21 industrial orange juice production was 30.4% lower in comparison to 1,202,702 tons of FCOJ Equivalent produced in the 2019/20 season.
4. PROJECTED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS FOR JUNE 30 , 2021:
The same survey indicates that global inventories of FCOJ Equivalent on hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 310,759 tons on June 30th 2021. If confirmed, this projection will represent a decrease of 160,379 tons compared to the 471,138 tons on hands of CitrusBR members on June 30th 2020.
The graph below contains historical Global Orange Juice Stocks of CitrusBR members in 30th June of each year.
5. GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS FOR JUNE 30TH, 2022
The table below shows some assumptions for the 2021/22 season, which will be confirmed in a new statement in August 2021:
Based on the above variables, which assume similar assumptions to previous seasons, it is already possible to assume that the orange juice inventories in the hands of CitrusBR members will be lower in June 30, 2022, in comparison to projected for June 30, 2021, and close to the so-called technical operating limit.
São Paulo, June, 9th, 2021
Ibiapaba Netto
Executive-Director
Audited inventories as at December 31st, 2020
