ARARAQUARA, MAY 19TH 2015
CITRUSBR PRESS RELEASE
Commitment to transparency
CROP FORECAST 2015/2016 SEASON
Today the Fund for Citrus Plant Protection (Fundecitrus) disclosed the results of the Crop Forecast Estimation Project (PES) with information regarding the total number of bearing trees, average projected productivity per bearing tree and total estimated production of oranges for the 2015/2016 season in the Citrus belt comprising the state of São Paulo and the Minas Triangle region in Minas Gerais, as follows:
Total number of oranges bearing trees: 174.13 millions trees
Average projected productivity for the 2015/2016 season: 1.60 boxes of 40.8 kg per bearing tree
Estimated total production of oranges in the 2015/16 season: 278.9 millions of 40.8 kg boxes of oranges
Based on these estimates of 278.9 million boxes of 40.8 kg of oranges being produced in the 2015/2016 season and considering as a mere reference that approximately 60 million boxes should be destined to the domestic and exporting fresh fruit markets, 218.9 million boxes should be destined to the processing market to be processed by members and non-members of CitrusBR.
INDUSTRIAL YIELD AND ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR THE 2015/2016 SEASON
CitrusBR, based on market information, estimates an average industrial yield for the next crop season of 270 boxes of 40.8 kgs of oranges being necessary to produce one ton of 66 Brix FCOJ Equivalent. If these estimates are confirmed, the total production of orange juice to be expected in the Citrus Belt of the state of São Paulo and the Minas Gerais Triangle should reach 810.7 tons of FCOJ equivalent, representing a decrease of 28% or 311 Thousand tons when compared to the 1,122,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent estimated for the 2014/2015 crop season.
For the 2015/2016 season, approximately 30% of the blossoming happened in fruits of third and fourth blooms. It means a substantial part of the 2015/2016 crop season production will be of late fruits or off season, whose characteristics are low juice content and yield. For this reason, these fruits are not economically suitable for industrial processing. According to Fundecitrus data, the third and fourth blooms alone amount to 27.9 million boxes of oranges. These fruits, due to the conditions described above, should not be processed by the industry. On the other side, these oranges will be picked during the off-season months (february, march and april), coinciding with the usual peak of fresh fruit consumption in the brazilian Market and justifying a higher offer for the domestic and exporting fresh fruit markets. This fact, paired with the decrease in the estimated industrial yield (from 240.5 boxes per ton on the 2014/2015 crop season to 270 boxes per ton in the 2015/2016 crop season), may represent an increased projection of 60 million boxes of oranges being destined for the domestic and exporting fresh fruit markets.
CARRY-OVER INVENTORIES BALANCED ON JUNE 30, 2016
The estimated decrease in production of orange juice in the 2015/2016 season confirms the trend verified in the last two years, with inventories being gradually depleted. It is believed that inventories owned by processing industries in the end of the season on June 30, 2016 should be technically balanced.
With the 2014/2015 season being closed, CitrusBR will soon disclose data about orange processing, industrial yield and orange juice production for said season. As usual, it will also disclose audited data about global inventories of orange juice on June 2015, and projections of inventories for June 30, 2016.
On behalf of CitrusBR team and its members, whose willingness and support were essential to make the PES Project possible, we would like to thank Fundecitrus and its team for accepting the challenge and delivering not only high quality results, but within the deadlines. The joint work of the whole production chain resulted in the long awaited citrus census and the consequent crop forecast. We also thank the thousands of growers and the industries – members and non-members of CitrusBR who allowed the Fundecitrus technicians to visit their properties. CitrusBR clarifies that it will no longer disclose crop forecasts for oranges, and from now on will work with the information published by the Fundecitrus in the PES Project.