Yearly Archives: 2020

STOCKS AUDITED ON JUNE 30TH, 2020:

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INFORMATION TO THE MARKET

STOCKS AUDITED ON JUNE 30TH, 2020:

A survey carried out through an independent audit with each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and also consolidated by an external audit, found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into Concentrated and Frozen Orange Juice equivalent to 66 ° Brix (FCOJ Equivalent at 66 ° Brix), held by its associates, on June 30th, 2020, were 471,138 tons.

INDUSTRIAL YIELD ON FRUIT FOR THE 2020/21 SEASON:

The compilation also carried out individually and confidentially by an independent audit among the companies associated with CitrusBR pointed out that the average industrial yield on fruit for the 2020/21 season is estimated at 268 boxes for the production of one ton of FCOJ equivalent to 66º Brix. However, due to the multiple blossoms in the current crop and uncertainties regarding the climate, this estimate is subject to correction until the end of the season.

ORANGE PROCESSING AND JUICE PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR THE SEASON 2020/21:

Considering a crop estimated by Fundecitrus at 287,760,000 boxes of 40.8 kg and a consumption in the Brazilian domestic market of fresh fruit of around 50,000,000 boxes, it is possible to estimate processing around 237,760,000 boxes for CitrusBR’ members and non-members.

By dividing the 268 boxes required to produce one ton of FCOJ equivalent to 66 Brix by the 237,760,000 orange boxes available to be processed in the 2020/21 harvest, it is possible to estimate a total production of 887,164 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66º Brix. If confirmed, it will represent a drop of 26.2% compared to the 1,202,792 produced in the 2019/20 harvest.

ESTIMATED DEMAND FOR THE 2020/21 SEASON

For calculation purposes, it is possible to consider that the international demand for orange juice may remain stable at approximately 1,070,000 tons, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). To this volume, it is necessary to add the estimated consumption of orange juice in the Brazilian domestic market of 80,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66º Brix, totaling an estimated demand of around 1,150,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66º Brix.

ESTIMATED OF CARRY-OUT OF BRAZILIAN ORANGE JUICE IN THE 2020/21 SEASON

Considering all the data exposed, possible changes in demand, and the incorporation of juices from other states in São Paulo’s inventories, it is reasonable to estimate that the final stock of orange juice on the date of passage on June 30th, 2021, will vary between 240,000 and 280,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66º Brix. The next review will happen in February 2021, when it will be possible to have more clarity about the behavior of demand in the current crop year, as well as potential changes in the development of the orange crop.

São Paulo, August 25th, 2020

Ibiapaba Netto

Executive-Director

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1.  TOTAL ORANGE PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO & TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO IN THE 2019/20 SEASON:

According to Fundecitrus latest April 9^th 2020 crop announcement up-date, the São Paulo and Minas Gerais Triangle production in the 2019/20 season was estimated at 386.79 million boxes of oranges 40.8 Kg.

The estimated total orange processing for the 2019/20 season was 325,077,912 boxes of which 295,266,912 boxes processed by CitrusBR members and 29,811,000 by non-members.

Based on above mentioned data we estimate that total consumption of oranges in the domestic and export fresh markets was of 61 million boxes.

2.  JUICE YIELD ON FRUIT FOR THE 2019/20 SEASON:

The survey also estimated that the average juice yield on fruit for the entire São Paulo Industry in the 2019/20 season was of 270,29 boxes of 40.8 kg per metric ton of FCOJ Equivalent produced of which 269,44 boxes per ton for CitrusBR members and 279.0 boxes per ton for non-members.

The graph below contains total industry historical juice yield of fruit.

3. TOTAL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION IN THE  2019/20 SEASON:

Considering the above data, we estimate that the total industry orange juice production in the 2019/20 season was of 1,202,702 tons of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent of which 1,095,854 tons produced by CitrusBR members and 106,848 by non-member.

The 2019/20 total industry orange juice production was 37.4% higher than what was produced in the previous 2018/19 season with an increment of 327.5 thousand tons FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent production.

4. PROJECTED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS FOR JUNE 30^TH, 2020:

The same survey indicates that global inventories of FCOJ Equivalent on hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 420,782 tons on June 30^th 2020. If confirmed, this projection will represent an increase of 167,601 tons compared to the 253,181 tons on hands of CitrusBR members on June 30^th 2019.

The graph below contains historical Global Orange Juice Stocks of CitrusBR members in 30^th June of each year.

São Paulo, May 21^st, 2020.

Ibiapaba Netto

Executive-Director

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1.  TOTAL ORANGE PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING IN THE CITRUS BELT OF SÃO PAULO & TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO IN THE 2019/20 SEASON:

According to Fundecitrus latest February 11^th 2020 crop announcement up-date, the São Paulo and Minas Gerais Triangle production in the 2019/20 is estimated at 384.87 million boxes of oranges 40.8 Kg.

The estimated total orange processing for the 2019/20 season will total 325,179,333 boxes of which 294,746,000 boxes processed by CitrusBR members and 30,433,333 by non-members.

Based on above mentioned data we estimate that total consumption of oranges in the domestic and export fresh markets is of 59.7 million boxes.

2.  JUICE YIELD ON FRUIT FOR THE 2019/20 SEASON:

The survey also estimated that the average juice yield on fruit for the entire São Paulo Industry in the 2019/20 season will be of 270,1 boxes of 40.8 kg per metric ton of FCOJ Equivalent produced of which 269.22 boxes per ton for CitrusBR members and 279.02 boxes per ton for non-members.

The graph below contains total industry historical juice yield of fruit.

3. TOTAL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION IN THE  2019/20 SEASON:

Considering the above data, we estimate that the total industry orange juice production in the 2019/20 season will be of 1.203.887 tons of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent of which 1.094.815 tons produced by CitrusBR members and 109.072 by non-member.

The 2019/20 total industry orange juice production will be 37.6% higher than what was produced in the previous 2018/19 season with an increment of 328.7 thousand tons FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent production.

4. AUDITED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS ON DECEMBER 31^ST, 2019:

A survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of CitrusBR members, and consolidated by external independent auditing firm also found that global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into FCOJ Equivalent 66° Brix on hands of CitrusBR´s members on December 31^st 2019 amounted to 853,778 tons which represented a 41,8% increase, or additional 251,839 tons as compared to the 601,939 tons found on December 31^st 2018.

5.    PROJECTED GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE STOCKS OF CITRUSBR MEMBERS FOR JUNE 30^TH, 2020:

The same survey indicates that global inventories of FCOJ Equivalent on hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 412,836 tons on June 30^th 2020. If confirmed, this projection will represent an increase of 159,655 tons compared to the 253,181 tons on hands of CitrusBR members on June 30^th 2019.

The graph below contains historical Global Orange Juice Stocks of CitrusBR members in December 31^st and Juice 30^th of every year.

 

São Paulo, February 17^th, 2020.

Ibiapaba Netto

Executive-Director