PRESS RELEASES  CITRUSBR
compartilhar este link
2014
2010
2009
2008
2007




RELEASE: Global inventories of Brazilian orange juice in June 30, 2017



Click for download PDF file

COMMITMENT TO TRANSPARENCY

The Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR), following its commitment to transparency, discloses the following information:

 

AUDITED INVENTORIES ON JUNE 30, 2017:

 

A survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of CitrusBR members and consolidated by external independent auditing firm, showed that global inventories of Brazilian Orange juice converted into Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice Equivalent (FCOJ 66° Brix) on hands of its members on June 30th, 2017, amounted to 107,387 tons, representing a decrease of 69.45% when compared to the existing 351,567 tons from the same date in the previous year (June 30th, 2016).

 

INDUSTRIAL YIELD ON FRUIT PROJECTED FOR THE 2017/18 SEASON:

A survey also conducted individually and confidentially by an independent auditing firm with CitrusBR members estimated the average industrial yield on fruit for the 2017/2018 season at 267.33 boxes of oranges required to produce 1 metric ton of FCOJ equivalent to 66 ° Brix. Although this yield on fruit is 6.6% better than the yield recorded in the previous season, it is still well below the historical average of 250 boxes per ton and the levels observed in the beginning of the historical series, reinforcing a trend of decreased juice content on fruit.

The table below contains historical data of juice yield on fruit since the 2000/2001 season:




PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING OF ORANGE JUICE PROJECTED FOR THE 2017/2018 SEASON

Considering the estimated production of 364.470.000¹ boxes of 40.8 kg of oranges published by Fundecitrus, and approximately 50,000,0002 boxes being destined to the fresh fruit market in Brazil, it is estimated that approximately 314,470,000 boxes would be processed by CitrusBR members and non-members.

When applying the estimated average yield of 267.33 boxes per ton to the 314,470,000 boxes to be processed, it is possible to estimate a total production of approximately 1,176,336 tons of FCOJ equivalent 66° Brix in the citrus belt of São Paulo and the Minas Gerais triangle.  

We also estimate a production of 30,676 tons of FCOJ equivalent 66° Brix in the 2017/2018 season in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, based on the official estimates of approximately 7,000,0003 boxes of oranges to be produced and processed in Paraná, and 1,170,0004 boxes in Rio Grande do Sul. The production from these states together with the São Paulo production amounts to 1,207,012 tons, which added to the 107,387 tons from beginning inventories result in a total supply of juice in the 2017/2018 season amounting to 1,314,399 tons.

 

ESTIMATED DEMAND FOR THE 2017/18 SEASON

The estimated external demand for orange juice in the 2017/2018 season is based on the average of the three previous seasons recorded by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), amounting to 1,037,8345 tons of FCOJ equivalent 66 Brix. Since the Brazilian consumption of orange juice is estimated at 69,0006 tons, it is possible to estimate the total demand at approximately 1,106,834 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66° Brix.

SUPPLY, DEMAND AND CLOSING INVENTORIES OF BRAZILIAN ORANGE JUICE IN THE 2017/18 SEASON

Considering the data shared and summarized in the table below about supply, demand and closing inventories in the 2017/2018 season, it is reasonable to forecast the closing inventories of Brazilian orange juice on June 30, 2018 to be approximately 207 thousand tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66° Brix, representing inventory replenishment for processing industries at minimum levels.



PROJECTED INVENTORIES OF ORANGE JUICE ON JUNE 30TH, 2018



São Paulo, August 9th, 2017

Ibiapaba Netto

Executive Director

 

Explanatory notes

1: Crop forecast estimate for the 2017/2018 season published by Fundecitrus on April 10,2017;

2: The estimated the size of the fresh fruit market was based on data about the industrial processing and the availability of fruit in the 2016/2017 season. Since the Fundecitrus estimated the current season to be 48% bigger than the previous one, it is reasonable to assume a higher availability of fruit for the fresh fruit market of 25%, from 40,000,000 boxes to 50,000,000 boxes; 

3: Agricultural Secretariat of the state of Paraná;

4: Agricultural Secretariat of the state of Rio Grande do Sul;

5: Average exports of the three previous seasons, as recorded by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) converted into FCOJ equivalent

6: Euromonitor + Tetra Pak Compass compiled by Markestrat;